Three gold price ratios worthy of attention

The ratio of gold price to silver price is one of the important variables we often see when deciding which of the precious metals is cheaper, but if you really want to know the historical background of the current gold price, you have to come from multiple angles. Look at it. After all, the traditional gold-silver ratio is usually used to see how silver behaves, not gold. When it comes to gold, there are some other ratios that you can take time to look at in order to get a more complete understanding of gold. This is the three most important ones:

1: S&P 500/Gold

This figure provided by macrotrends.net can see the data before the Great Depression.

标普500/金

What have we seen here? First of all, there are some large and long-term fluctuations. Although the median seems to be in the range of 1 to 1.5, Standard & Poor's has been low relative to gold during the Great Depression and World War II, and then during the stagflation of the 1970s. It is clear that in the days before the tech bubble burst, the S&P was overvalued, and, before the Great Depression, it did not show that a similar bubble was about to burst.

In the recent context, Standard & Poor's/Gold has been around 1.75 to 1 in the past few years, suggesting that the stock market may still be slightly overvalued relative to gold. Of course, if you invest in gold, you are likely to stick to it for a long time and see if the S&P will fall below the average again.

2: Dow/Gold Ratio

If you are interested in how the stock market is performing relative to the price of gold, then the Dow Jones/Golden ratio is the second thing you should pay attention to:

道指/黄金比率

Although we can see that the trend is similar to the S&P 500/Gold ratio, there are some interesting differences. First, the Dow has a higher ratio to gold (as we expected), but it seems to even exceed the historical median.

Like the S&P, the Dow Jones/Gold seems to be slightly above the historical average relative to gold, which means that even if the price of gold is relatively high, the stock market may not collapse.

3: Gold vs. monetary base

This ratio shows that the gold bull market is not far from over, and in fact, it may be in a simple holding mode before it can start to rise.

To put it simply, this is the ratio of the price of gold to the base currency adjusted by St. Louis, which “mainly maintains the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, which indicates the need to prevent new levels of debt deflation,” according to macro trends. For example, in the early 1980s, the proportion was too high and the bull market was over.

Now, this ratio is very low - far below its average:

黄金对货币基础

Although this is only an indicator, it is an indicator worthy of attention - another indicator that gold has sufficient upside potential, if the price of gold will rise later this year until 2017.

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