2016 is chaotic? In fact, 2017 is the beginning of the world's great change!

Invite friends to send Hao Li! 185 yuan red envelope waiting for you to take! Fund Mall 1 fold purchase

Article source: WeChat public number lookout think tank (zhczyj)

Text | Han Fudong

From a historical point of view, 2017 may be the beginning of some major changes, but don't expect results to come soon.

Whenever the year-end and the beginning of the year, we must always summarize the international situation, but after some tossing in 2016, it seems that there are some risks in looking forward to the future. Many problems that were not seen in 2016, I am afraid there will still be no results in 2017.

Looking back at history, we will find that many of the problems are either only beginning or ending, or long-term sawing is finalized, and most years are mediocre in the weary sawing.

Therefore, although many comments have high expectations for the historical status of 2017, there are many major changes that may occur in this year's world. But from a historical point of view, 2017 may start to "start" for some major changes, but don't expect to see results soon.

In 1948, the UN Security Council, which was established just two years ago, throughout the year, formed a total of 15 resolutions on the Palestinian issue. This is definitely a good start. However, it did not promote the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli issue.

During the 68 years from 1948 to 2016, the Security Council considered the Palestinian-Israeli issue almost every year, but now the Palestinian-Israeli issue is still there, and there has not been much improvement.

A recent resolution was formed on December 23, 2016, condemning Israel’s illegal expansion of settlements. I did not expect Israel to be extremely tough and set a huge obstacle to the Palestinian-Israeli issue at the beginning of 2017.

The Palestinian-Israeli issue has been repeated and repeated, and the development interests of several generations of the Palestinian people have been consumed in this painful drama. If you want to look to the future, it is very likely that I will not see any results when I retire.

If the Palestinian-Israeli is an old problem of "grandfathers", then in 2017 we will usher in more new issues of "grandchildren", such as the Brexit negotiations in the UK. Looking at it now, this is likely to be a protracted game. Don't say that in 2017, there may be no clear results by 2027.

There are too many complicated intertwined interests within the UK, within Europe, and between the UK and Europe. It is impossible to appease these interests without long-term running-in. Based on this game, the British can stay in the EU for a long time to enjoy the benefits of integration, and the EU can also avoid the chain reaction triggered by the British exit (although this is not necessarily what Europeans want to see).

It may be a bit pessimistic to say that the Brexit negotiations will last for decades, but it is foreseeable that we will hear news about Brexit every day for a long time to come. The referendum on the Brexit can only be regarded as a headline for future British-European relations, and the road to negotiation is long.

This is the case in 2017, and many problems still only begin with no end. And because of the so-called "postmodernity" or "post-truth era" and other issues, this phenomenon may be more serious. To put it simply, everyone is no longer serious about pursuing the truth. People just ask questions, no one cares what the answer is. Even people don't ask questions, they just shout.

If you sit there and look for the truth, you will fail. That's why when Trump said that he wants to build a wall at the US-Mexico border, impose a 45% tariff on Chinese products, claim to investigate Hillary as soon as he takes office, and threaten to cancel the Air Force One order, even though it looks like these The argument is not influxed at all, but there are still a large number of people cheering for it. No one will really investigate whether he will keep illegal immigrants out of the wall after he is elected.

Trump's few promises that may be honored are the cancellation of the TPP, but the later sawing will be a long-term process, and perhaps the next presidential election will still have no results.

A similar thing will be there in 2017.

If calculated from the 2007 US subprime mortgage crisis, this year is the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis. According to some theories, 10 years is an economic cycle. This means that the last crisis is not over yet, and we are likely to usher in a new round of crisis.

Moreover, the current international political and security environment is seriously tightening, and the market itself still lacks sufficient growth momentum. Some countries in Europe and some emerging economies have higher potential risks, and the world may fall into the second crisis. Therefore, the economic crisis has started since 10 years ago and may not end in another 10 years.

And because politicians have introduced too many ineffective incentives, the public has long since not bought the policy propaganda. They know that the economy will not recover for a while, and it is better to shout out when they sit there and seriously discuss the useless policies. Passionate slogans such as "Retrieve those who have been stolen from employment" "to get rid of those who have taken away our employment opportunities" and so on.

If we count from the "9.11" incident in 2001, this year may be the 17th year of the resurgence of terrorism, and there is no sign of any cooling.

In recent years, the extremist organization "Islamic State" has succeeded Al Qaeda as the most dangerous terrorist organization in the world. Its terrorist acts in Syria and Iraq far exceed the imagination of normal people. The terrorist attacks made in Europe are appalling.

In the second half of 2016, the strength of “Iguo” was seriously damaged, but after being broken up, it is likely to accelerate the spillover to Europe, Central Asia, South Asia and even Southeast Asia. If coupled with the local response, the global solution to terrorism Far from seeing the end.

If the negotiations started in the WTO in 2001, the Doha process has been talking for 16 years. However, unfortunately, in 2016, the global trade protectionism was soaring, and various anti-globalization and globalization thoughts collided with each other. It is difficult for us to make a proper conclusion for the Doha process in 2017. Therefore, in the eyes of many people, there is only one way to end the Doha negotiations, which is to declare failure.

At the same time, the TPP was declared "temporary shock" by the Obama administration, and the TTIP negotiations were temporarily suspended. Negotiators should not forget the ambitions when they started these negotiations. Unfortunately, they only started. How the future global trade and investment governance structure evolves may depend on how countries coordinate, which will also be a long-term process.

We also thought that there would be no more large-scale refugee problems in the modern civilized world, but since the first North African refugees swam across the Mediterranean on the European continent a few years ago, the "magic box" of European refugee problems was opened.

The Europeans made great efforts to solve the refugee problem in 2016, but the effect was not good. In 2017, it is difficult for us to see the solution to this problem, and it may even worsen because of the terrorist attacks.

Recently, Time magazine published a series of reports on small refugees born in Europe. If Europeans see these reports may suck up a cold air, then many small refugees born in Europe, in the future they need to grow, enroll, work, and integrate into society. This is not discrimination. This is a real problem. The next generation of refugees will have a profound impact on the social structure of Europe. I am afraid it will not be solved in 10 years. In the past 10 years, these small refugees have just started to go to elementary school.

In addition to the difficult inter-State affairs, the domestic problems of some countries will continue in the long run and may even be more difficult to resolve than international affairs.

The deterioration of the European refugee problem is naturally reminiscent of the self-immolating Tunisian youth Bhujjiji at the end of 2010. He is considered to have “opened his head” and since then many countries in the Middle East have fallen into a spiral of social and political turmoil.

For the past six years or so, no one in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Yemen or even Turkey is stable. Egypt’s Mursi spent only one year from the president to the prisoner; Syrian Bashar was once hidden, but now suddenly began to inspect the people; Turkey’s Erdogan was still complaining about Russia yesterday and flew to Moscow today.

In 2017, perhaps the geopolitical situation in the Middle East will cool down, but it will further counter the internal turmoil in these countries. In other parts of the world, there are many countries facing Brazil's domestic governance difficulties, such as Brazil, Venezuela, and South Korea. The common rule is that once they start, they are easy to fall into a vicious circle and it is difficult to calm down.

Overall, the world of 2017 will continue to struggle in these unfinished business. In other words, the pursuit of solving these problems in the short term is unreasonable in itself. The long cycle is the basic feature of the evolution of international affairs.

From 1914 to 1945, the world consumed 31 years because of two major wars; from 1946 to 1991, the Cold War lasted for 45 years; from 1950 to 1993, it took the Europeans 43 years to build the European Union; the Soviet Union played in Afghanistan. In the past 10 years, the United States has been in Vietnam for 12 years, and Japan’s economic downturn has been going on for nearly 30 years; our neighbor, ASEAN, also took 48 years to build the community (1967-2015).

Judging from these long-term experiences, many of the problems we are facing in the present may actually be in the period of the "intraday" struggle, far from the end of the period. Therefore, it is more important in 2017 to pay close attention to and seize the new trends that may arise to prevent bad heads.