Whether chemical fiber can never break through the "cotton knot"

â–¡ Zhang Jiazhou, a reporter from this reporter, has a clear alternative relationship between polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, and cotton. In other words, an increase in the price of cotton will directly drive the rise of viscose staple fiber and polyester staple fiber, and vice versa. For this kind of intertwined prices, the phenomenon of unceasing scrambling, the industry has an image metaphor - "cotton knots" of chemical fiber raw materials.

Looking at the market trends of polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber in recent years, they have all experienced regular changes with the rise and fall of cotton. In particular, since the last year, the price of cotton has drastically changed so that all varieties of chemical fiber have not been spared. When will these chemical fiber varieties get rid of the influence and bondage of cotton and decide their destiny? Is there really a "cotton knot" that can never be earned on them?

The price difference is defined by the market. According to the reporter’s understanding, this phenomenon is mainly due to the increase in the production cost of the downstream spinning and weaving enterprises caused by the increase in cotton prices, and companies are turning to the use of chemical fiber staple fibers with similar price advantages and similar performance. Mainly polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, which led to the growth of demand for staple fiber market, and then pull up the price of staple fiber, so that the price of staple fiber and cotton prices always maintain a certain price difference.

At present, the price difference crisis is accompanied by price movements. There will always be a certain price difference between cotton and staple fiber, and the reasonableness of this difference is made by the market. According to the reporter's understanding, from a different point of view, the evaluation of the reasonableness of the difference is also different. The criterion is to see whether the current difference is conducive to increasing the consumption and demand of cotton or staple fiber.

In recent years, the cotton market has been increasingly affected by national policies and capital markets. How to accurately determine market changes? First of all, we must follow national policies. The two ups and downs of the cotton market are related to market regulation. Last year, the cotton price was operating at a high level. A lot of hot money went into the acquisition of seed cotton, and the seed cotton purchase market was in chaos. In order to guide the acquisition of seed cotton and maintain market order, the state has adopted a series of measures to strengthen cotton market management, strengthen cotton quality supervision, strengthen information guidance, and so on, prompting prices to decline in mid-November last year. After that, the sharp drop in cotton prices was due to the increase of inflationary pressure at home and abroad, the continuous increase in the CPI index, the country’s further efforts to regulate and control, the upward adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio and the increase of interest rates, the continuous reduction of social deposit funds, and the shortage of funds for textile companies. The decline in cost competitiveness of enterprises has forced cotton prices to fall.

Accurately determine market changes, but also grasp the rules of the market. Cotton is the highest degree of commercial agricultural products, its price trend is affected by the capital market is relatively large, it is indeed difficult to accurately grasp the market's operating situation, but in actual operation, through the cotton supply and demand fundamental analysis, national policy guidance, international, The domestic market environment and other advantages of the Li Duo Li comprehensive analysis to grasp, as close as possible to the market this invisible hand of the trajectory of the business activities to make correct judgments.

Cotton and polyester staple fibers and viscose staple fibers depend on each other and replace each other. According to the trend of the market over the past five years, it can be seen that the spread between viscose staple fiber and cotton is reasonable between 3000 and 4,000 yuan. High cotton prices will drive the market demand for viscose staple fibers. However, the spread between viscose staple fiber and cotton is not always maintained at 3,000 to 4,000 yuan.

From May to December 2010, due to weak market demand and ample supply, the price of viscose staple fiber has been consistent with the cotton price. Even in the mid-November increase, viscose staple fiber follows the pattern of cotton. The difference between the two is almost zero.

As an alternative to cotton, viscose has a unique advantage. It is a cellulose fiber produced from cotton or other natural fibers as a raw material. It has always played an important role in the spinning field with its good moisture absorption, breathability, antistatic properties, dyeability, drape and comfort. As a result of continuous reform of production processes and equipment and further improvement of fiber properties, viscose staple fibers gradually solve the problem of environmental protection. However, based on the improvement of performance, viscose staple fibers are faced with the practical problems of lack of raw materials and surplus products.

According to the statistical data of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association's Viscose Committee, last year, the overall viscose shows a trend of continuous increase, the basic balance between product supply and demand, production and sales have also increased significantly, inventory is small, and economic operation is basically normal. From January to October, the production of viscose fiber increased by 4.24% compared with the same period of last year, and the growth rate narrowed; the viscose fiber production enterprise operating rate was approximately 90%, the annual pulp output was approximately 1.3 million tons, and viscose fiber production was approximately 1.9 million tons. However, under the continuous rise of prices, the profit of viscose staple fiber has not been substantially improved. The gross profit margin of viscose since the beginning of the year is between 6% and 8%.

Why viscose staple fiber soared in 2010? The reduction in cotton production also dragged down the production of cotton linters. About 30% of the production cut directly brought the price of cotton linters to a record high. With the increase in costs and the pain of production cuts, cotton pulp not only bears high prices but also brings The bleak results of low operating rates. The viscose staple fibres, on the other hand, are accompanied by Khmer prices. The shortage of raw materials and high costs have also accompany them, which have formed the main reasons for the short-term rise of viscose staple fibers.

Although viscose staple fiber has sufficient reasons for rising, the downstream market is unbearable. In the face of the gradual completion of the demand for supplemental banks, profits of the downstream companies are also significantly reduced. The weak demand also makes the market not keen to purchase chemical fiber raw materials. In addition, the soaring prices of raw materials plunged to make downstream companies more cautious. The appreciation of inflation and inflation have made exports more difficult. In short, the demand for viscose staple fiber market this year is not optimistic due to the large fluctuations in cotton prices and other factors.

The substitution of chemical fiber gradually increases. In an interview with the reporter, the company stated that in recent years, the increase in chemical fiber production capacity and low prices will lead to an increase in the substitution of chemical fiber, which has inhibited cotton consumption to some extent. From the second half of 2011, new domestic PTA production capacities have been put into operation one after another, and the situation that PTA is in short supply has improved. The increase in cotton production also led to viscose staple fiber using cotton linters as raw materials, which has a larger production space. At present, the price of polyester staple fiber is 12,600 yuan/ton, and the average price of viscose staple fiber is approximately 18,000 yuan/ton, which is 8,600 yuan/ton or 3,100 yuan/ton lower than the current cotton price. Such a spread makes the chemical fiber very large. The price advantage.

The role of chemical fiber substitution was limited in 2010, mainly due to the limited supply of chemical fiber and the lack of timely adjustment of textile and clothing companies. However, in 2011, the supply of chemical fiber will be more relaxed, and the unreasonable price difference will also cause the textile industry to adjust the process. Designers of garments should consider increasing the proportion of chemical fiber.

Experts conducted a comprehensive analysis of this, cotton prices of around 20,000 yuan per ton do not have absolute advantages, the high cotton prices will stimulate the increase in the global cotton planting area in the next two years, but also inhibit the excessive growth in demand for cotton. If the new cotton grows in good weather, the global cotton price still has many uncertainties. In the next fiscal year, the domestic cotton price is likely to be around 20,000 yuan/ton under the support of the policy of storage and storage, and the possibility of shocks will be around 3,000 yuan. Increased output and stable demand will guide cotton prices to gradually return to normal levels within the next three years.

Since June, Zhengzhou Cotton ** has gradually declined after hitting a new stage high at the beginning of the month, and the intra-day oscillations have intensified. In the spot market, cotton and cottonseed prices did not follow the price fluctuations of **, and basically kept declining trend day by day. The purchase price of third-grade lint at domestic large-scale textile mills was 22,000 yuan/ton, which was lower than the market price by 1,000 yuan/ton. From the investigation of the cotton industry chain in the relevant departments in early July, the downward trend in the volume of export orders, backlog orders, and even production of the textile industry has not yet been reversed. This makes the industry unprepared for the performance of cotton prices in the future.

According to survey data, the inventory cleanup of the textile industry chain was not completed. Of the more than 30 textile companies surveyed, 80% failed to complete the price reduction promotion order plan at the end of June. The inventory and pessimism of large and medium-sized textile enterprises far exceed those of small enterprises. Some large-scale textile enterprises have cotton or cotton stocks in 60 days to 100 days, and they have to sell for two months even if they stop production. In addition, the capacity utilization rate of printing and dyeing plants fell below 80%, and direct exporters did not obtain long-term large orders in previous years, and they doubted whether the cotton textile industry could recover in the first half of next year. At the same time, cotton production and processing companies generally believe that the new cotton delivery receipts will be given priority to the State Reserve. Due to the better weather so far, the intention of Zhengzhou Cotton 1201 forward contracts started to increase after the current price spread widened. However, the gins were affected by the double settlement of the Agricultural Development Fund at the end of July, and the general funds were tight and were still in the inventory liquidation stage.

The downstream exporters surveyed all locked up the expected purchase price of cotton for the new year at a national closing price of 19,800 yuan/ton. They believe that once the industry shows signs of warming next year, textile export tax rebates will be greatly adjusted. It can be seen that as long as bad weather does not occur in August and September, cotton in the new year is expected to be listed in advance, and this year will be able to successfully link up with cotton resources of the current year, and it is expected that the opening price will be closer to the national reserve price.

New fiber resistance to cotton depends on the era of high cotton prices plus raw materials such as cotton prices fluctuated, textile companies what is the way out? The industry believes that textile companies should take measures to reduce inventory, improve product quality, especially the large number of new fiber applications and other measures to deal with fluctuations in raw material prices.

Vigorously developing and applying new fibers is the preferred measure to resist dependence on cotton. The huge fluctuations in cotton prices have brought fatal blows to small- and medium-sized cotton textile companies, but have little effect on textile companies that use new types of fibers. According to relevant reports, Texas Huayuan Textile Co., Ltd. is a new and modern textile company with 60,000 pieces of ring spinning and 60,000 pieces of compact spinning, and 16 sets of vortex spinning produced by Murata in Japan. Based on market demand, they successfully developed new types of functional yarns such as modal, Tencel, bamboo fiber, moisture wicking fiber, milk fiber, Ben tyrant fiber, heating fiber, nylon fiber, soybean fiber and cashmere. Cotton Yarn yarn has passed international certification, the products are sold throughout the country, and exported to South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong and other countries and regions. The volatility of cotton prices has almost no impact on the company. Production and operations are normal, and the operating rate is 100%.

In recent years, under the backdrop of the sluggish industry as a whole, a batch of textile enterprises such as Hengfeng, Shengze, Baoding and Fuhua in Lingxian County of Shandong Province have sprung up and vigorously developed new types of fiber to explore a textile company that does not use cotton. New way. In the exceptionally difficult situation of the cotton textile industry in recent months, the benefits of the new fiber companies have steadily increased, maintaining a steady development momentum. According to statistics, currently there are more than 30 new-type fiber textile enterprises above designated size in Ling County, with a production capacity of 1.2 million spindles, and the production capacity accounts for 30% of the same industry in the country. The new fiber textiles have reached over 30 series and more than 500 varieties, covering More than 90% of the varieties on the market. Relying on a variety of product varieties, differentiation, and new product mix, Lingxian's new fiber textile companies have been able to stand alone in this year's textile industry.

Lingxian Hengfeng Textile Co., Ltd. is a large-scale cotton spinning enterprise with 150,000 spindles. It mainly produces pure spinning and blended special yarns of various new fibers such as modal, Tianzhu, Dutch viscose and Lanjing viscose. Jia Guoqiang, deputy general manager of the company, said that Hengfeng company mainly uses new fibers and the amount of cotton used is very small, less than 20%. With the recent drop in cotton prices, the demand for new fiber products has not been reduced in the market. The impact of cotton price fluctuations on the enterprises is very small. Currently, the company has been producing at full capacity. The inventory is only 500 tons, which is equivalent to the company’s output for more than 10 days. There is a problem of product backlog difficulties.

At the same time, it has been very effective to compress inventory, reduce capital occupation and hard work, and improve product quality. Shandong Xiajin County is a national high-quality cotton production base, with an annual cotton planting area of ​​about 600,000 mu. In recent years, the local government has vigorously developed the textile industry. The county has 140 cotton spinning enterprises and 2.2 million spindles, making it a "Chinese textile city." Xiajin County is dominated by small and medium-sized textile companies. In this wave of ups and downs, the local textile companies have become the “hardest hit areas”. In recent months, companies have tried every means to promote sales, but they still cannot sell. Cotton yarn stocks generally reach one and a half to two months (normal stocks are 15 to 20 days), and the pressure on stocks has increased. With large amounts of funds, the turnover was very difficult. There was no money to purchase raw materials, and many companies reluctantly chose to stop production for work stoppages.

Recently, cotton prices have fluctuated sharply and companies can only take small orders. With the reduction of large orders, corporate inventories gradually increased, and capital turnover was difficult. Most of the local small spinning companies with a production volume of 30,000 spindles or less have low product quality, short capital chains, and greater pressure on inventory. This is also the main reason for the large number of local companies that have stopped production.

Demian Cotton Co., Ltd. is a large-scale integrated cotton textile enterprise integrating spinning, dyeing, weaving and product processing. It owns 230,000 ring spinning machines and 3,000 air-jet spinning machines. Its overall equipment has reached the leading level in the same industry in China. More than 80% are exported all over the world. Li Chuanbo, general manager assistant of Demian Co., Ltd., and manager of raw materials company, when analyzing the current difficult situation of textile companies, believes that since the second half of last year, the domestic cotton price has risen sharply, and the increase in wages has led to an increase in overall production costs, pushing up cotton. The price of textiles, many foreign orders gradually began to shift to Southeast Asian countries.

Li Chuanbo believes that the present pains of textile companies may be a good thing for the entire industry. It forces companies to improve product quality and eliminate backward production capacity. In the future, as the cost of domestic labor rises, it may not be feasible to take the low-cost expansion. At present, in addition to reducing inventory, textile companies must also work hard in the quality and style of their products, improve their internal strength, improve product quality, and make products fine and detailed. We should improve our research and development capabilities, constantly introduce new products, enrich the style of our products, and adapt to the needs of the market, so as to minimize the impact of fluctuations in cotton prices.

A large number of small and medium-sized cotton spinning enterprises have low product grades and similar product structures. They produce large quantities of low-tech goods. They have no market competitiveness at all. Once they encounter signs of trouble, they will be defeated. In recent years, fluctuations in cotton prices have almost become the norm. Only by using less cotton and reliance on cotton can the business operations be less affected by fluctuations in cotton prices, and the high added value of new fiber products will increase the market for the company. Competitiveness. Some business operators have realized that the potential for domestic cotton production in the next few years is limited, and the gap between supply and demand will persist for a long time. The textile industry must make structural adjustments to transform products from low-grade, extensive to high-end, fine-scale, actively develop high value-added non-cotton fibers, reduce the use of cotton, and reduce dependence on cotton.

From the actual development of the industry in recent years, it can be seen that the technical progress of the polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber industry is obvious, and the outstanding performance is evident in the improvement of product quality, differentiation, and functional varieties. Many varieties have not only replaced cotton. It can better meet the diversified market demands of downstream industries and play an important role in promoting industrial upgrading.